Tuesday, June 13, 2006

I Dream of Boomer

Last night I had a dream I never could have seen coming.

A brusque night at the home park, in the heat of the pennant race. A-Rod steps into the box. He's trying to lift his team out of a 2-0 deficit in the 8th. He waits for the pitch with a full count.

Big Boomer takes a deep breath on the hill. He winds up, rears his old arm back and wheels around, aided by the momentum of his great gut. A looping deuce spins off Boomer's hand and bites down through the outside edge of the plate. A-Rod admires it all the way.

BAMMMMM. The punchout is one fit to drop A-Rod to the mat. Inning over. Wells walks back to the dugout with his head down. He clears his head because that's what you have to do when you're spinning a gem.


- Then I woke up. -


And I realized, sadly, that what I had witnessed will only ever be a dream. The recent liner that Boomer took off his ailing knee gave him a deep bone bruise, and significantly lowered the chances of him ever throwing another major-league pitch. Right now, the outlook for his return is grim.

So is the state of the Red Sox rotation, after coming to terms with the fact that the man expected to bolster the back of their rotation is not going to come.

Luckily for the Sox, neither the Yankees nor the Blue Jays have been able to take control of the division lately, which has afforded them some leeway in solving the pitching problem. But it's still unresolved -- how will they do it?

There are a few scenarios.

Stick with David Pauley. He's had three starts, none of which have been won, and gave a quality outing only once. Continuing to pitch Pauley here just isn't the right thing to do. It's comparable to insisting on starting DiNardo, which the Sox eventually figured out wasn't bright either. We're not the Royals, and we're not going to get anywhere by playing like them. Pauley might be useful down the road, but now is not the time.

Go with Jon Lester. Lester made his first start last week with and pitched respectably, having to wait out a long rain delay before making his major league debut. Scouts have said that, despite being the Sox' top prospect, he's not ready to make the jump to the majors yet. Who knows, he might thrive under pressure -- these are the kind of situations that turn prospects into the real deal. But whatever the Sox do, Lester can't be rushed. Young arms just can't take the heat of the long major-league season, and the Sox should take a lesson from the Cubs on this one. Lester will be good, but if too much strain is put on his arm right now, he could get burnt out later in the summer.

Use both. Interesting idea. This would take some strain off the young arms and provide some insurance should the starter flounder early. Pauley Lester in the back of the rotation might be a nice inning-eating innovation.

Reinstate Papelbon. I supported this idea earlier in the season and still do to some degree. But especially now, the bullpen is too weak to remove Paps from it. He's the only proven stopper of the whole bunch, and until the other pitchers take hold of the reigns (which may never happen), Papelbon has to remain the go-to guy in the 9th. The Red Sox hope Craig Hansen can take over sooner than later, but he's yet to find a groove.

Start starting Hansen. He's been starting in AA for some time, and is worth a shot in the rotation. Perhaps, but not right now. For one, the bullpen he's in is especially weak. And with Pauley and Lester hanging around the rotation, they might as well go with one of those two before trying Hansen in that role. He should get a shot if the spot remains open for a while, though, if he pitches well in setup.

Get a proven starter. This option will be expensive, especially in terms of minor-league talent given up. It would likely include Lester or another of the Sox' very top farmhands. If we have a chance to trade for Dontrelle Willis or a comparable good, young arm, it might be viable (however painful) to part with good minor-league talent. The Sox should not, however, mortgage their prospects for a mediocre hurler. Lester's almost ready, so I'd rather see him propelled into the role than traded.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Sox Stock Up in Draft

Red Sox 2nd pick, RHP Daniel Bard -- picture from redsox.com



On the dreary day of a rainout, following two straight losses to the Yankees that caused a drop out of first in the AL East, the only spot of solace to be found was in the Red Sox' 2006 draft class.

The sox drafted 27 pitchers and 27 position players, with an emphasis on raw power (both on the mound and at the plate) and good on-base skills.

They say it's not a sprint, it's a marathon. Well, the MLB amateur draft is 2 marathons, and Baseball America recaps each of the 50 rounds.


1. OF Jason Place, HS (SC)
Place is a solid all-around hitter, baserunner and fielder, in the mold of Jason Bay / Bobby Abreu. Place has a solid set of tools to work with and expand upon as he progresses through the minors. His development may be quick, but it won't be rushed -- just of high school, he has plenty of time to hone his skills down on the farm without pressure to help the major-league squad.

2. RHP Daniel Bard, UNC
Bard's performance as one of the nation's best starters was largely eclipsed by teammate Andrew Miller, who went 6th overall to the Tigers. Bard has been dominant at times, though inconsistent. He has a power arm, a solid arsenal of pitches to work with, and the desirable durability of a college pitcher. The Red Sox know how to treat their prize prospects, and Bard won't be rushed.

3. LHP Kris Johnson, Wichita St. -- (Shockers story)
Johnson is a hard-throwing lefty with good stuff, but has had injury trouble. He recently underwent Tommy John surgery, which isn't all that discouraging seeing how that procedure has rejuvenated many a fastball in recent years.

4. RHP Caleb Clay, HS (AL)
Clay was recently converted from an outfielder to a starter (think Jesse Foppert) and was co-ace of his very successful high school club. Like most such converts, Clay lives and dies with his impressive heater. He'll absolutely need to learn a couple more pitches, but he'll have plenty of time to do it. His ultimate role will depend on his ability to learn and stay healthy, and it's much too early to project it.


The first 4 picks


5. RHP Justin Masterson, SD St. -- (Aztecs story)
Masterson shone in both San Diego and the Cape Cod league, where he developed a rapport with the Red Sox and the local community. Not quite the power pitcher that the first three picks are, Masterson still has a good fastball, good command, high K rates and a big frame to work with. Masterson's downside is that he lacks the arsenal of a major-league starter, and coming from college, doesn't have as long as Clay to develop one. He's known as a character guy, and projects well into at least a relief role.

6. 1B Aaron Bates, NC St. -- (Wolfpack story)
Bates is an athletic physical specimen who put up Helton-like numbers at NC State. He set the college's all-time record for batting average while delivering nice power numbers, and figures to do the same against comparable opponents in the low minors.

7. RHP Bryce Cox, Rice
Cox fits the mold that the Red Sox had been fond of the whole draft -- big frame, power arm. Cox's fastball has been called "extremely hard," and he has experience working from both the rotation and the bullpen. His strikeout rates are good, and he could be a very versatile piece in a bullpen.

8. C Jon Still, NC St.
Like teammate Aaron Bates selected before him, Still is a masher. He hits for a nice average with lots of home runs and even more doubles, which are a good predicter of future power. Still played mostly DH at NC state, which probably means he doesn't have much of a future behind the plate. First base looks more likely.

9. LHP Dustin Richardson, TX Tech
Richardson didn't put up great numbers at Texas Tech, but was solid. He's huge and from college, though, both of which bode well for his future. The Red Sox are taking lots of power arms, which shows that they have lots of confidence in their pitching coaches to teach 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pitches. Richardson is a project, and we'll see how the Sox do with him.

10. 3B Zach Daeges, Creighton
Daeges is the full package. He hits for average and power, plays all over the field, and is one of the nation's best at drawing the walk. He's also smart, which is no small indicator of potential. The Red Sox love on-base machines like Youkilis, and the hope is that Daeges will be that for them, with better defense.


Other picks of notice

Round 14. PH (Power Hitter) Matt LaPorta, UF
LaPorta has led the Gators in home runs for a couple of years, and is perhaps the nation's best raw power. Why so low? He's not a senior, and his agent is Scott Boras. That means that if he and the Red Sox don't come to terms (which is more than likely) he can and will go back to Florida and try again next year.

Round 48. RHP Josh Papelbon, North Florida
It will be seen later whether this submarine-style closer has a chance in the minors, but he tremendous upside. What upside? The Papelbon Gene. He's the brother of phenom Jonathan Papelbon, and that alone was enough for the Sox to justify taking a chance on the releiver in the second-to-last round.


Friday, June 02, 2006

...And a Few More Injuries for the Road

The day off for the Red Sox was a gift from heaven.

Right when they needed it the most, a respite came. Now it's back on the road against MLB-best Detroit, fresh off a series that had Red Sox players dropping like flies.

We already knew about LHP David Wells, LHP Lenny DiNardo, and RHP Mike Timlin going down. Now RF Wily Mo Pena's "minor wrist injury" -- very similar to the one that sidelined David Ortiz for 2 months in 1997 -- is dragging him off to surgery and a consequent 6-8 week vacation. Varitek's been hitting poorly, Ortiz has looked tired in the past few series (from doing what?) and Ramirez has sustained some bumps and bruises despite heating up at the plate.

Apart from the normal wear and tear, a couple other serious injuries are looming a little too close for comfort. 3B Mike Lowell, who has sparked the Red Sox offense so far this year while contributing to the team's league-leading fielding percentage, pulled up lame the other night after a groundout to first. The indication is that Lowell's hamstring is the weak link here, and they're known to be particularly bothersome long after the initial pull or strain.

Another potential problem is the foot of 2B Mark Loretta, who, despite going yard in the series finale, ran gingerly around the foot in the field. Ask Pena, Foulke, and Crisp; sometimes these "little" injuries aren't so little after all. One can't help but wonder what would happen if either Lowell or Loretta aggravated their conditions, and it's not a pretty picture:

3B Kevin Youkilis
SS Alex Gonzalez
2B Alex Cora
1B J.T. Snow

We'd be able to turn 2, and not much else. Which might come in handy if the Sox need to start RHP David Pauley again in the back of their beat-up rotation, judging by the hittability and lack of control he showed in his major-league debut.

The point is, Cora, Snow, Gonzalez and Pauley are not names you find in a playoff-caliber lineup and rotation. The Red Sox walk a thin and treacherous line for the next 7 road games, and if Loretta or Lowell goes down it may well turn out to be a plank.